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A big night for the Brits at the Golden Globes? Maybe … And guess who I predict goes home empty handed?

By Daniel Kenealy

The thing that disappoints me most about tomorrow nights Golden Globes - even before the winners are announced - is that ‘The Dark Knight’ competes in just one category. That the category - best supporting actor - is a slam-dunk for Heath Ledger’s menacing terrorist is scant consolation. Add in ‘Wall-E’s surefire victory in the best animated feature film category and you can draw a line under the ‘blindingly obvious’ Globe predictions. At least as far as I see the race, nothing is particularly secure. The presence of Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet in two acting categories and the strange Anne Hathaway online incident make figuring out how the Globes’ cake will be sliced very tricky indeed. In the top category of Best Drama, ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ is being called the obvious pick but I am not completely convinced.
‘Slumdog Millionaire’ is the most talked about British film in several years. Its setting - the slums of Mumbai - has made it extraordinarily topical. But even without that the film would remain a spectacular over-the-top fusion of Hollywood and Bollywood. It is easy to see why its simple story is capturing the hearts of audiences across not just America, but the Globe. Leaving aside the issue of whether it deserves the plaudits it is being showered with - and I personally feel it is a tad overblown - let us focus on this question: will it be the big winner at tomorrow evening’s Golden Globes ceremony?

Certainly, its success at the Critics’ Choice Awards on Thursday - including trophies for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay - bodes well for success further down the awards-season track. But, will the Globes bite? Eleven of fourteen experts polled by theenvelope.latimes.com believe that they will. But three dissenters remain, including Dave Karger. They are united in their prediction of a victory in the Best Drama category for the overly earnest three-hour fantasy, ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’. It is easy to have reservations about ‘Slumdog’s’ prospects with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. On the one hand its easy to say something like: the international critics represented by the HFPA will surely endorse this internationally flavored movie. But such statements tend toward the redundant and facile. Indeed, a quick perusal of recent Globe winners in the Best Drama category suggest a pattern. Consider: ‘Atonement’, ‘Babel’, ‘Brokeback Mountain’, ‘The Aviator’, ‘The Return of the King’, ‘The Hours, ‘A Beautiful Mind’, ‘Gladiator, ‘American Beauty’, ‘Saving Private Ryan’, ‘Titanic’, ‘The English Patient’, ‘Sense and Sensibility’. That takes us back to 1995.

Some obvious Oscar correlations are obvious but, especially in recent years, deviations are apparent. So even if you are adamant that ‘Slumdog’ will collect the Best Picture Oscar that doesn’t necessarily mean it goes into tomorrow night as the favorite. Victories for movies like ‘Atonement’, ‘Babel’, ‘The Aviator’, and ‘The Hours’ suggests a predilection by these voters for something quite epic - by which I do not meaning running time but rather scope and aspiration - and something (to choose a loaded word) ‘weighty’. The films that those films triumphed over - such as ‘No Country for Old Men, ‘The Departed’, and ‘Million Dollar Baby’ - were all movies that might be considered easier to watch, more enjoyable, more populist, or more likely to pull the emotional vote (in the case of ‘Baby’). But the HFPA went high-brow. Making these predictions is never a science and the obvious counter is that popular offerings such as ‘Gladiator’, ‘Titanic’, ‘The Return of the King’, and ‘Saving Private Ryan’ (to name but a few) have also triumphed here in the past. My point is simple: movies with some literary pedigree, movies that are high-brow, epic in scope and ambition tend to appeal to the HFPA. Whilst ‘Frost/Nixon’ is perhaps one of those typical, admired enough to be nominated but not loved enough to win, movies and ‘The Reader’ and ‘Revolutionary Road’ do not seem to have the legs in this category, ‘Benjamin Button’ stands as a strong contender. I will probably get burned big time for predicting its victory.

The other categories are even less clear. The drama acting categories are strangely open. Best actor was expected from early in the season to be a nip-and-tuck race between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke but Penn seems to have hit the gas these past few weeks. Will he grab the Globe? He is rightfully considered the favorite but ‘Milk’ was clearly not well received by the HFPA whilst ‘The Wrestler’ was. I find it hard to believe we will get all the way to Oscar night without Rourke’s buzz truly getting off the ground. Globe voters’ predilection for big stars at the podium should make us all cautious about writing off DiCaprio or Pitt but a win for either is hard to imagine and would cut very much against the grain of the precursors to date. My pick: Penn as a nod to the snubbed ‘Milk’.

The comedy categories are a little more mysterious than usual with no obvious Oscar heavyweight in the best motion picture lineup. ‘Happy Go Lucky’ and ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’ are the classy, weighty offerings that the Globes may opt for. ‘Burn After Reading’, whilst fun, is not cut out for this award. ‘Mamma Mia!’ and ‘In Bruges’ are both contenders though. The former was a huge box office success, it has some very passionate supporters and everybody loves to have some fun at the movies right? (Well not me, personally I hated it but still …) ‘In Bruges’ was the surprise of the nominations but I suspect the support does not run wide or deep enough to secure this trophy. My gut has said ‘Mamma Mia!’ since the nominations based on the logic that, without a clear frontrunner or Oscar contender, they’ll let loose and opt for the film they enjoyed the most. But something is holding me back and I am staying safe with my prediction of ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’. The film had a brilliant cast, was very well written and did quite well in scoring a trio of nominations. ‘Mamma Mia!’ might seem lightweight in comparison.

In the musical or comedy acting categories I think those calling a win for Dustin Hoffman could be onto something in predicting the biggest name. Nobody really stands out and none of them will get an Oscar-boost from this. James Franco might be the ‘cool pick’ and the Globes do like to aspire to cool-ness. In the actress category as great as Meryl Streep is I do not believe she will win both Globes and thus I predict Sally Hawkins - the only genuine Oscar prospect on this shortlist - to continue her strong run through the precursors.

So, if Sally Hawkins takes the musical or comedy trophy then surely the double-nominated Meryl Streep will win in the drama category for ‘Doubt’? Very possibly but this category is headache inducing this year. The Critics’ Choice helped not one iota by announcing a tie between Streep and Hathaway earlier this week. I think the race is down to those two. Unlike others I do not see Kate Winslet as a particularly strong force in this category (Adams, Bowles, and Karger over at theenvelope.latimes.com are on record calling it for her). ‘Revolutionary Road’ has certainly gone over better with the HFPA than virtually any other awards bodies but I think those who want to support Winslet because they like *her* will be torn between her two performances. Angelina Jolie is loved by the HFPA but that will not be enough. And whilst T.L. Stanley (over at Gold Rush) should be commended for having the balls to predict Kristin Scott Thomas I am not entirely sure what the rationale is behind that call. Who wins? Streep or Hathaway? I am agonizingly predicting Hathaway which means a disappointing for Meryl Streep fans (and I am in the first tier of them just to make clear). I think people often take Streep performances a little for granted. Those who admire *her* might, a la Winslet, split their votes, and whilst she is outstanding in ‘Doubt’ it is very hard for her to deliver work that beats expectations. Hathaway, in comparison, has a true breakthrough role on her hands and perhaps Meryl could live with her ‘Prada’ co-star beating her to the podium. Hathaway’s turn as an addict features more obvious acting and, having paid her dues, will be rewarded for a career-expanding performance. Her star glamour cannot hurt either. Certainly a compelling case can be built against her built on the foundations of ‘Rachel Getting Married’s relatively poor performance in the precursors; the lack of a big scene for Hathaway; and the reality that this is more of an ensemble piece. But I think she will prevail nonetheless.

In the directing and writing categories I think ‘Slumdog’ will gets its reward. The screenplay category is loaded with five adaptations but ‘Slumdog’ is the most story-driven and the most reliant on the brilliant simplicity of its story to convey itself. As Sasha writes, ’story conquers all’ in this movie and the Globe voters will likely recognize that. In the director category I see David Fincher as the only serious competition and the epic-scale of his task makes him a serious player. But Danny Boyle has become the personification of ‘Slumdog’s’ success - possibly because of the lack of A-list stars to throw the limelight on - and taking a camera to the streets of Mumbai and filming such a great movie is, again as Sasha says, something to admire.

In the music categories I do not mind admitting that the Globes are something of a mystery. I remain one of the biggest Bruce Springsteen fans in the world and, having seen him a dozen times in concert, cannot bring myself to predict anybody other than him to win for the wonderful title song from ‘The Wrestler. I admit that prediction lacks any ’science’ but, there you go … As far as best original score is concerned a ‘Slumdog’ sweep would very possibly bring A.R. Rahman to the winners’ circle. Severe sentimentality of a burning desire to see him on stage could see Clint win for another of his minimal but very effective compositions. James Newton Howard and Hans Zimmer are both composers respected enough, and doing solid enough work in their respective films, to make a play for this. But I am predicting Alexandre Desplat who arguably shows the most range in ‘Benjamin Button’.

To close with the best supporting actress category and another head-scratcher. If Kate Winslet fails in the lead category then surely the Globes will reward her here? Just like Meryl, it’s very possible. I would be quite surprised if either Marisa Tomei or Amy Adams emerged victorious here - not that either gave bad performances but I just feel they lacked the impact of Winslet (in a quasi-lead role), Cruz (with all her precursor momentum), and Davis (with that absolutely outstanding scene). Great as Davis’ scene is I think Cruz vs. Winslet is the crux of this category. Penelope’s turn is lusty, crazy, creative, and utterly scene-stealing. She’s a super-star and I feel she’ll continue her strong precursor run and collect this. Winslet is captivating in ‘The Reader’ to be sure but I still feel she may split her votes and some voters may resent a vote for what is clearly a leading performance.

So there you have it. A bump in the road for ‘Slumdog’. A shot in the arm for ‘Ben Button’. A double disappointment each for Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet. An emotional moment in tribute to Heath. A consolation trophy for Harvey Milk. A little youth in the mix with Hathaway and Franco. And a trophy for The Boss. That’s how I see Globes’ night.

To recap:

Best Motion Picture - Drama: ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama: Sean Penn in ‘Milk’
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama: Anne Hathaway in ‘Rachel Getting Married’
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy: ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy: James Franco in ‘Pineapple Express’
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy: Sally Hawkins in ‘Happy Go-Lucky’
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture: Penelope Cruz in ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture: Heath Ledger in ‘The Dark Knight’
Best Animated Feature Film: ‘Wall-E’
Best Foreign Language Film: ‘Gomorrah’ (Italy)
Best Director - Motion Picture: Danny Boyle for ‘Slumdog Millionaire’
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture: Simon Beaufoy for ‘Slumdog Millionaire’
Best Original Score - Motion Picture: Alexandre Desplat for ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’
Best Original Song - Motion Picture: ‘The Wrestler’ from ‘The Wrestler’ (Bruce Springsteen)

And just for fun …

Best Television Series - Drama: ‘Mad Men’
Best Actor in a Television Series - Drama: Michael C. Hall in ‘Dexter’
Best Actress in a Television Series - Drama: Anna Paquin in ‘True Blood’
Best Television Series - Musical or Comedy: ‘30 Rock’
Best Actor in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy: Alec Baldwin in ‘30 Rock’
Best Actress in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy: Tina Fey in ‘30 Rock’
Best Made for Television Movie or Miniseries: ‘John Adams’
Best Actor in a Made for Television Movie or Miniseries: Paul Giamatti in ‘John Adams’
Best Actress in a Made for Television Movie or Miniseries: Shirley MacLaine in ‘Coco Chanel’
Best Supporting Actress - Television: Rachel Griffiths in ‘Brothers & Sisters’
Best Supporting Actor - Television: Tom Wilkinson in ‘John Adams’